According to our latest polls-plus forecast, Hillary Clinton has a 92% chance of winning the California primary.Which means that Hillary will win California and Bernie should drop out or does it? According to this statistics, there is an eight percent chance Bernie will win California. When you look at the headline, it seems imminent that Hillary will win California, but the one word that gives doubt or the proverbial outlier is the word chance.
If you read the polls under the 92 percent chance, there is a break down and the fact that Hillary shouldn't worry...well, it ain't true. Let me use this graph. This is a graph on chocolate sales:
Through from May through March, chocolate sales were around 15 percent, April skyrocketed as high as 37 percent, so what does that mean? Easter is really a popular for chocolate bunnies or chocolate in general. Chocolate makers look at the stats and increase production in order to meet demand...this is called an outlier. 2012 was the opposite and that too is the outlier.
Bernie is an outlier
For stores, outliers could either make a break a company's profit for the year. In other words, if a company makes a nice profit selling chocolate at 15 percent, they would more than double their profit during April and have a nice disposable income throughout the year. 2012, was the odd year where they actually went below 20 percent. So is this the new norm for April or was this just an outlier. Where there other patterns too? What made it drop?
So you look at previous anomalies. What made it go down? Was there a milk shortage? Food poisoning? Is this the new norm? Is carob or organic/vegan chocolate replacing milk chocolate? These thing have to be sought out, or one will lose. The Five Thirty Eight stat is showing Hillary has a 92 percent chance of winning California, all of California or is it a certain segment? In analytics or statistics, there is this thing called variables.
Saying that Hillary is winning 92 percent means nothing. Remember when people were jumping when reports said that Hillary won the south? She did...but what were the variables? In Tennessee, Hillary 251,250 votes to Bernie's 123,750 or little more than 49 percent...which is a lot but the variables would actually make it a lot lower. In 2008, 625,000 people showed up vs. 325,000 according to Ballotopedia. Also, the 92 percent for Hillary may be older baby boomers and the Lost Generation voting, now if you break down the vote according to NBC News:
In the Democratic horserace, Clinton leads Sanders among likely voters ages 45 and older (63 percent to 33 percent), self-identified Democrats (57 percent to 40 percent), women (54 percent to 41 percent), past Democratic primary voters (53 percent to 42 percent) and whites (51 percent to 46 percent).Both candidates are neck-and-neck and according to age ratio: http://www.infoplease.com/us/census/data/california/demographic.html
Clinton also is ahead among those who have already voted, 58 percent to 41 percent.
Meanwhile, Sanders leads among first-time participants (72 percent to 28 percent), independents (68 percent to 26 percent), those younger than 45 (66 percent to 30 percent), men (54 percent to 43 percent) and Latinos (49 percent to 46 percent).
Hillary will have a tough time...if Five thirty Eight is correct.
Total population 33,871,648 100.0 SEX AND AGE Male 16,874,892 49.8 Female 16,996,756 50.2 Under 5 years 2,486,981 7.3 5 to 9 years 2,725,880 8.0 10 to 14 years 2,570,822 7.6 15 to 19 years 2,450,888 7.2 20 to 24 years 2,381,288 7.0 25 to 34 years 5,229,062 15.4 35 to 44 years 5,485,341 16.2 45 to 54 years 4,331,635 12.8 55 to 59 years 1,467,252 4.3 60 to 64 years 1,146,841 3.4 65 to 74 years 1,887,823 5.6 75 to 84 years 1,282,178 3.8 85 years and over 425,657 1.3 Median age (years) 33.3 (X) 18 years and over 24,621,819 72.7 12,130,354 35.8 12,491,465 36.9 21 years and over 23,146,248 68.3 62 years and over 4,253,854 12.6 65 years and over 3,595,658 10.6 1,513,874 4.5 2,081,784 6.1
So yes, Hillary is beating Bernie at 92 percent, but you need to look at the full pic before making a prediction...but can Hillary win even though Bernie can win the popular vote? There is always that variable called: Electoral College and they can always put in another candidate at the convention.
